Will we be able to feed 9 billion people in 2050?

Ever since Rev. Malthus's theory of population failed to produce the projected results, it has become mighty hard for people to be moved by 'The sky is falling' prophecies. It's amazing how many current surveys of society's perception of climate change, show that most people just don't believe it's an issue. 

Perhaps they are right. Most people in the field of energy will never suggest that the world is going to run out of energy. Energy economists, for instance, will stand by the theory of price. There are many energy sources available to us which are not viable today because of the costs of extraction and processing. When oil becomes scarce enough driving up it's price, alternatives like wind, solar, nuclear and wave energy which are just not being exploited their fullest potential in many places, will step in. Oil trapped in the tar sands of Canada (the largest reserve of petroleum in the world outside of Saudi Arabia) will be extracted. Crisis Averted.

So why should they listen when it comes to food? Well, because there are no known substitutes for food. And whilst we can give up our second cars, air-conditioning, etc. We just cannot give up food. We would die. Given my preamble, I guess it makes sense that I focus on not whether we can feed 9 billion people in 2050, but how. Whilst a lot of the measures require government action, I will focus on what you and I can do to help food security, and the environment.

• Cut down on beef

I live in the desert. Water is an issue we are constantly grappling with. And yet 70% of consumptive water is used in cattle rearing. Previously, I would have balked at the statistic "It takes 24 liters of water to produce one hamburger". Today, I am more than willing to believe. Between cultivating hundreds of thousands of acres to feed them, cleaning them and cleaning up after them, processing them, etc. Cattle take up a lot of water. Keep your consumption of beef to the minimum. Substitute with chicken, fish (and surprisingly better on the environment), even pork. The resources spent on feeding them alone; water, land, time, etc. can all go towards growing food for humans; you and me. Eat fewer animal products. Grain and soya beans should be saved for people, and animals should only be kept on land which is too poor for crops.

• Minimize waste

Accorging to Hervé Guyomard of INRA (French National Institute for Agricultural Research), food amounting to 800 calories is lost per person per day as waste in richer nations. Save leftovers for the next day, eat bread crusts, stalks of vegetables such as broccoli, cauliflower, etc.

• Buy Local

Apart from the organic benefits of farmers' markets, etc., cosmetic requirements for food sold in supermarkets lead to a lot of farm produce going waste because they are too small, too big, oddly shaped, etc. for 'commercial' purposes. Make a walk of it. Meet your local farmers, haggle prices, your food will taste twice as nice knowing you did the environment and yourself some good.

Why not start with these and see how it goes? The truth is, we will probably not have 9 billion people to feed in 2050 if we all continue living like we are. If we did, we probably won't be able to feed them if they had our current dietary preferences or worse. (i.e. given ecological and technological constraints). The impact of 9 billion people on resources depends a lot on what we eat, now and then. Are you going to do something about YOUR contribution?

FRESH CORN-ON-THE-COB… AND FOOD SECURITY (Yup! There’s a link)

I remember a few months back, I wrote a facebook status message extolling the virtue of fresh corn on the cob. My status went something like this – ‘Forget Mars, Snickers and M & M’s – I’d rather have boiled Corn-on-the-cob and coconut any day. You see, I was comparing the snack culture we had in Ghana before colonization and the one we have now and their respective effects on our waistlines. Did I hear you ask if we had a snack culture? Sure we did. Now, we’d call them finger food but roasted plantains, boiled/roasted corn-on-the-cob with coconut, roasted cocoyam/yam with salted fish or palm oil are all snacks – and healthy ones at that.

Feeling rather snug at having re-affirmed my Ghanaian pride on the World Wide Web for all to see; I walked about puffed with pride the whole day until I spoke with a friend of mine later in the day. Mr. X was taking me to church that very evening. Corn was in season and as usual, there was no shortage of street vendors selling the boiled version of this delicacy. The roasted version was not so popular with street vendors because they had to be hot and soft to be enjoyed and they cooled rapidly and became hard when taken from the heat source. I asked him if he enjoyed eating this and I got an insight that had never occurred to me.

Apparently Mr. X was very passionate about the sale of corn-on-the-cob when corn was in season. You see, every cob of corn contains hundreds of corn kernels – seeds that could have produced more corn if planted. Every year, we boil and roast possibly millions of these cobs (you do the math) and then, we turn around and worry about food security. Ask yourself this – even in America (one of, if not the largest corn producers in the world), how often do you see people eating fresh corn? Personally, I cannot speak much about this, never actually having been there before. However, if what I see on TV is anything to go by, it’s served only at thanksgiving and special occasions like that.

He said if he had money, he would buy tons of corn when they were in season and store them in a silo for re-sale when they were out of season. Apparently, the price of a bag of maize in-season and out-of-season differed by as much as GHC70 (about 45 dollars). Imagine that! And we gaily eat corn-on-the cob without a thought to food security. And we enjoy this delicacy without thinking of going into farming ourselves. He said he had started working on a farm and I realized how far we have to go.

Next time you eat corn-on-the cob, think what you are doing or can do to help improve food security in Ghana, and Africa for that matter. Apparently, for a nation which has over half of its people employed by agriculture, our food security situation is nothing to write home about. I am writing this because corn is in season. Think about it. It sure tastes good. What are we doing to make sure it will always be there?

Think Food Security is irrelevant? Check out these stats

Hunger Stats
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Every year, authors, journalists, teachers, researchers, schoolchildren and students ask us for statistics about hunger and malnutrition. To help answer these questions, we've compiled a database of useful facts and figures on world hunger.

GLOBAL HUNGER
• 1.02 billion people do not have enough to eat - more than the populations of USA, Canada and the European Union;
(Source: FAO news release, 19 June 2009)
• 907 million people in developing countries alone are hungry;
(Source: The State of Food Insecurity in the World, FAO, 2008)
• Asia and the Pacific region is home to over half the world’s population and nearly two thirds of the world’s hungry people;
(Source: The State of Food Insecurity in the World, FAO, 2008)
• More than 60 percent of chronically hungry people are women;
(Source: The State of Food Insecurity in the World, FAO, 2006)
• 65 percent of the world's hungry live in only seven countries: India, China, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Pakistan and Ethiopia.
(Source: The State of Food Insecurity in the World, FAO, 2008)

CHILD HUNGER
• More than 70 percent of the world's 146 million underweight children under age five years live in just 10 countries, with more than 50 per cent located in South Asia alone;
(Source: Progress for Children: A Report Card on Nutrition, UNICEF, 2006)
• 10.9 million children under five die in developing countries each year. Malnutrition and hunger-related diseases cause 60 percent of the deaths;
(Source: The State of the World's Children, UNICEF, 2007)
• The cost of undernutrition to national economic development is estimated at US$20-30 billion per annum;
(Source: Progress for Children: A Report Card on Nutrition, UNICEF, 2006)
• One out of four children - roughly 146 million - in developing countries are underweight;
(Source: The State of the World's Children, UNICEF, 2007)
• Every year WFP feeds more than 20 million children in school feeding programmes in some 70 countries. In 2008, WFP fed a record 23 million children.
(Source: WFP School Feeding Unit)

SOURCE OF STATISTICS: WWW.WFP.ORG